The second is the transitionary bit: the only serious way in the next 15-20 years to bear down on coal is to switch from coal to gas. Tracy: Mac, I really enjoyed this discussion and I hope I get to talk to you again. In a conversation with Energy Examined host Tracy Larsson, energy thought leader Van Wielingen discusses why productive assets from a strong oil and gas industry are vital to counterbalance growing deficits, and why Canada needs to better support its homegrown industry in a global competition for investment capital, focusing on its strong environmental, social and governance standards. Joining the podcast today is Mac Van Wielingen. But that does not mean that we can afford to wait until the second half of the century to make the transition to nonâfossil-fuel energy. The same 2bn tonnes of CO2 could be saved through substantial improvements in energy-efficiency over and above those already expected. Building up the necessary infrastructure is going to be a long and expensive process, which should be encouraged through public procurement, tax incentives and a big increase in R&D budgets. In part, that is because investors will probably move slowly. Internet coverage is patchy, food and consumer goods are scarce, and lifeâsaving drugs such as insulin are hard to come by. What do you see as the role of Canada's energy sector and of the resource sector? If the denouement of Mitchellâs novel presents one frightening future, Cuba provides another sketch of what could be in store if the transition from a fossil fuel world to one running on renewable energy does not go according to plan â less apocalyptic than The Bone Clocks, but with considerable drawbacks. But the economics of more, together with a rapidly rising population, have created problems unforeseen at the time of James Wattâs steam engine. India provides another example of the policy choices facing countries in the emerging world. And it's like there's almost a reluctance or an embarrassment or an unwillingness to look at our resource potential truly as a strategic asset for Canada. Almost 90% of that energy is provided by fossil fuels â coal, gas and oil. Mac founded ARC Resources and ARC Financial, which is Canada's largest energy focused private equity firm. Nicholas Stern, who authored a 2006 report on the economics of climate change commissioned by then-chancellor Gordon Brown, says stopping growth misses the point. It does not have to be that way. The mission could be to phase out domestic use and export of coal by a fixed date, or to set a deadline for shifting 50% of US energy consumption to renewable sources. Tracy: OK, so let's get right into that, then, when we're talking about Canada's economic recovery, what that could look like. Saudi Arabia without oil ... off five percent of Aramco on foreign stock exchanges has gone and now PIF, the main vehicle for diversifying his economy away from oil, is â¦ The Economic Effects of a World Without Oil. And they don't have enough confidence and faith in in the process of ingenuity and inventiveness and how powerful the incentives are to solve society's problems. Tracy: Hello and welcome to the Energy Examined podcast. He's a veteran energy executive. And this, notwithstanding the corporate sustainability reports and the greenwashing, remains the case for even the most right-on companies. Receive our free newsletter with energy stories and news that matter to Canadians. One of the challenges faced by those who wish to curtail fossil fuel use is that there is no political consensus on tackling climate change. But talk about why attracting investment back to Canada is so important right now. And tax initiatives are on the horizon.' And so, we need that positive orientation. But would energy policy in Canada be different if the energy region straddled Ontario and Quebec? To have a realistic prospect of preventing global temperatures from rising by more than the previously recognised danger threshold of 2C, scientists say it is not possible to burn all the proven fossil fuel reserves owned by companies and governments. But there's no long-term strategic, competitive value creation being created in doing that. We could be living through the green technological revolution, in which energy has been decarbonised. And the question for Canada is, what is our strategy in that kind of an environment of deep, potentially and most likely declining demand as we go into this transition? Â© 2021 Guardian News & Media Limited or its affiliated companies. Africa is far greener than the UK, the US or Germany, largely because of hydroelectric power in countries such as Ethiopia. There was an acute shortage of fuel for tractors. And when I talk about economics, I talk with ESG and I'm trying to encourage people to look at, to broaden the concept of ESG to E-ESG or what I sometimes describe as double 'ee'-s-g. And it's, we have to see these aspirations across those four cornerstones. One option would be to skip fossil fuels entirely and move straight to renewables, especially solar energy, but Watkins says that this is too expensive for most countries to contemplate. Calorie intake fell by a third. QOM Oil Minister Bijan Namdar Zanganeh told the one-day conference on Economy Without Oil here Thursday that it is a mistake to consider oil as a source of revenue. To sign up for our newsletter you will need to temporarily disable the ad-blocker and refresh this page. In 2017, Texas grossed more than $264.5 billion a year in exportsâmore than â¦ Did you know oil sands companies spent $3.2 billion supporting 2,230 Canadian companies outside of Alberta? And I think we should actually, that should be part of our strategy or our climate action strategy. The grow-your-own drive has only been partially successful: a quarter of a century later, food is still rationed in Cuba. Even if you do so more slowly, it will still go into the atmosphere and cause climate change.â Jacobs adds that, in the past quarter of a century, when countries could have been putting in place the infrastructure for a new green economy, they have been going in the opposite direction. Slowly, those in power are beginning to understand what is at stake: that if we carry on growing the global economy at its current rate, and continue to rely on fossil fuels to power that growth, the planet is going to cook. Governments are thinking about climate change, but they have other more immediate priorities: reducing unemployment, increasing living standards and, in the case of politicians rather than the technocrats running central banks, getting re-elected. John Lewis commissions expensive ads to encourages us all to spend more at Christmas. Rising sea levels have caused floods on the New York City subway, killing thousands. Oil Sands Question and Response (OSQAR) is a blog created by Suncor Energy to support constructive dialogue about the oil sands. And I find that shocking. In addition to higher consumer spending, that also means higher demand for energy, the bulk of which comes from fossil fuels. The future sketched out in The Bone Clocks is only fiction. In terms of reducing the number of people living below the global poverty line of $1.25 (84p) a day, the post-cold war model of capitalism has been a success. Same is true in agriculture and in mining and forest products and the way technology is, is being utilized. The business-as-usual camp says that the scientific consensus is wrong about climate change, or that climate scientists have exaggerated the risks, which can be tackled if and when they become apparent. Ever since oil prices began collapsing in the second half of last year, many in Canada have been asking: Can our economy survive without oil? They should be, but it needs to be presented that way. Atlanta and Barcelona have the same number of people and share the same per-capita incomes, but Atlantaâs carbon emissions are 10 times those of Barcelona. The lessons from the anti-apartheid and debt-relief campaigns is that divestment can be used to put pressure on governments to act. And that's why a lot of people have trouble wanting to rely on innovation -- policymakers and government leaders or the environmental activists -- because they can't get a direct line to what it is that might surface on the innovation side. > GDP rank: eighth largest. So if reducing living standards is a political non-starter and repression is spurned as a way of controlling population growth, that leaves reducing the carbon-intensity of growth. In order to avoid ecological suicide, they argue, we must first recognise that capitalism is an insuperable obstacle to any reduction in our fossil fuel consumption. To some in the environmental movement â the âdeep greensâ â it seems pointless to expect politicians to do anything meaningful about climate change: they are obsessed with growth for its own sake, bend the knee to fossil fuel companies when they demand tax breaks and subsidies, and are reluctant to back the potential of renewables. And who's going to replace that production? And you know, I know that, for example, our investors, 70, 80 per cent of our investors at ARC Financial are international investors. Today there are more than 7 billion. If you do not see a subscription sign-up form above, it may be because your browser has an ad-blocker set up. It does cut across the whole economy and it's a very important part of the sector. But we have to bear in mind that -- and you create jobs because people are going out and planting trees and all the related work. As oil prices keep increasing, many are looking to a future without oil. And the governance record in the industry is excellent. BP admits that, on its current projections, emissions will âremain well above the path recommended by scientistsâ. Outside of South Africa, coal is a small part of the power story. Firms have to depend on costly generators, which makes goods more expensive. The average sub-Saharan African consumes the same amount of energy in a month as the average Briton does in a day. What is best at this time is to conceive of a economy without oil revenue and construct an economic management model based on that premise. And so, it begs the question and people are all asking. There are more climate change sceptics than we might like to think. At the moment, oil exporting countries are earning billions of dollars in oil revenues; this gives them economic power and to a large extent political power. It is hard to explain the consumer-led recovery in the euro area without assuming a positive impact from lower oil prices. I literally have come to view the industry the way it's evolved is, that it's a technology business, it's technologically driven, and it's so reliant on technology, it really, can be understood as a technology company that's focused on resource development. I'm Tracy Larsson, and today we're going to delve into Canada's economic recovery, what it could look like and the unique role of Canada's natural gas and oil industry. There are those who might argue otherwise, but life in the world before the industrial revolution really was nasty, brutish and short. The experience of the past few years would appear to support the Stevenson-Wolfers argument: the idea that, above a certain level of prosperity, there is no link between happiness and income has yet to be tested in a period when living standards have been flatlining. Not everybody buys into this narrative, of course. It's not negative, it's not hostile, it's not tearing it down. And then, of course, there's the Atlantic-based oil and gas activity as well, which is certainly very significant to those provinces, Newfoundland and Labrador specifically, for example. Mac: Well, one of the things that I just want to emphasize is that what I have found in my discussions with people, one point of understanding that kind of separates people in terms of their strategies and their policies, is this issue of how long it's going to take for the industry to go through the transition. âAchieving universal access and a tenfold increase in power generation will take huge domestic investments and a big international financing effort.â. Here at the Guardian, we want to sell more newspapers, and more ads to companies selling their own goods and services to readers. Given the dreadful air quality in Delhi, the government led by Narendra Modi is well aware of the threat of climate change and has announced ambitious plans to increase solar power. The talk at meetings of the International Monetary Fund and the G20 is whether the next financial crash will be caused by the pricking of the carbon bubble â the idea that the stock-market valuation of fossil fuel companies has been inflated by overestimating the worth of reserves of oil, coal and gas that could only be exploited by putting the climate at risk. Calgary, Alberta, Canada. It's not like a corporation that borrows a whole bunch of money and goes out and builds a new plant or new facility or makes an acquisition. And if you look at it relative to the automobile sector, automobile parts and so forth, and in southern Ontario or manufacturing, other subsectors, it is multiples greater. vast majority of fossil fuel reserves are unburnable, Investment in clean energy is growing at a double-digit rate, Atlantaâs carbon emissions are 10 times those of Barcelona. And the corporate sector is also, the debt levels are among the highest in the world. Our Reporter . But there is going to be a lag, even on the most optimistic assumptions, before renewables can take the place of coal. At the end of the 18th century there were fewer than 1 billion people on the planet. Global temperatures have risen by almost 1C above pre-industrial levels, and the number of weather-related natural disasters has increased. And why shouldn't Canada be an active participant in offering our products into that market long term? Since the middle of the 18th century, there have been successive waves of technical progress: coal and steam, railways and the internal combustion engine at the end of the 19th century; the mid-20th-century age of consumer durables and commercial air travel. Within five years, the reach of the market economy had been extended to an additional 3 billion people. After decades of relying on Moscow for oil, chemical fertilisers, pesticides and a large chunk of its food, Fidel Castroâs government faced a crisis. It's really extraordinary. âWhat matters is the sort of growth we choose. The Islamic Republic is in the midst of a non-oil export boom -- it has the potential to remain a middle-income country even â¦ Nigeria can plan economy without oil, says Agusto. Nor would there be much support for a return to the days before fridges, gas cookers, washing machines and vacuum cleaners. After all, the average sub-Saharan African does not have $200 to spare. Even the light green approach is going to be tough, and might not work. Tracy: You know, the perception is that natural gas and oil is a Western Canada thing, and that's actually not true. In terms of reducing global poverty capitalism has been a success, but this growth has put pressure on the planet. Mac: And the usual response is just a smile, a smirk and, 'oh, of course, it would be different,' that kind of thing. The U.S. is now starting to go in that direction somewhat. The economy shrank and strict food rationing was imposed. 0. All rights reserved. And it's shocking. Or, even for a household, putting money into the house for repairs and maintenance, those can be at least partially explained by or looked at as investments, and you've got an enhanced asset. And so, I'm not criticizing that. But the collapsing cost of crude oil is the equivalent of a tax cut for energy consumers; governments could remove subsidies painlessly in the current climate. Norway opted out of the EU during a referendum in November 1994. Like Stern, he is not really talking about replacing the economics of âmoreâ with the economics of âlessâ; he is suggesting replacing it with the economics of âbetterâ. Please join us again next time. Those who say manmade global warming isnât happening look more and more certain to end up on the wrong side of history â which will harshly judge our failure to act until the threat had become so obvious that we had no other options. 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